57Limiares de viragem
0atualmente acionados
13atualmente parciais
0Alertas precoces«parcial» antes de um acionamento
5Retiradasclassificação depois atenuada
Limiares de viragem que se moveram
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions não acionado → caducado
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parcial → não acionado
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East não acionado → parcial → não acionado
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East acionado → parcial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East acionado → parcial
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability não acionado → parcial
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions não acionado → parcial → não acionado
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East não acionado → parcial
Níveis de situação por tema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
Todos os limiares de viragem por tema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness parcial
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness não acionado
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness não acionado
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness não acionado
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific não acionado
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific não acionado
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific não acionado
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parcial → não acionado
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry parcial
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry não acionado
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry não acionado
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate parcial
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate parcial
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate não acionado
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate não acionado
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate não acionado
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability não acionado → parcial
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability não acionado
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability não acionado
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability não acionado
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East acionado → parcial
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East não acionado → parcial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East acionado → parcial
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East não acionado
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East não acionado → parcial → não acionado
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence parcial
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence parcial
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence parcial
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence parcial
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence parcial
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence não acionado
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence não acionado
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence não acionado
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence não acionado
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence não acionado
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence não acionado
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence não acionado
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security não acionado
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security não acionado
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security não acionado
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security não acionado
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital pouco claro
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital não acionado
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital não acionado
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act pouco claro
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act não acionado
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act não acionado
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions não acionado
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions não acionado → parcial → não acionado
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions não acionado
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions não acionado → caducado
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment não acionado
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment não acionado
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment não acionado
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment não acionado
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment não acionado
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment não acionado