57Kantelpunten
0momenteel geactiveerd
13momenteel gedeeltelijk
0Vroege waarschuwingen„gedeeltelijk” vóór een activering
5Intrekkingenbeoordeling later afgezwakt
Kantelpunten die bewogen zijn
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions niet geactiveerd → vervallen
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific gedeeltelijk → niet geactiveerd
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk → niet geactiveerd
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk → niet geactiveerd
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
Situatieniveaus per thema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
Alle kantelpunten per thema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness gedeeltelijk
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness niet geactiveerd
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness niet geactiveerd
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness niet geactiveerd
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific niet geactiveerd
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific niet geactiveerd
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific niet geactiveerd
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific gedeeltelijk → niet geactiveerd
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry gedeeltelijk
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry niet geactiveerd
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry niet geactiveerd
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate gedeeltelijk
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate gedeeltelijk
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate niet geactiveerd
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate niet geactiveerd
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate niet geactiveerd
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability niet geactiveerd
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability niet geactiveerd
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability niet geactiveerd
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East niet geactiveerd
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk → niet geactiveerd
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence gedeeltelijk
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence gedeeltelijk
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence gedeeltelijk
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence gedeeltelijk
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence gedeeltelijk
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence niet geactiveerd
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence niet geactiveerd
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence niet geactiveerd
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence niet geactiveerd
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence niet geactiveerd
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence niet geactiveerd
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence niet geactiveerd
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security niet geactiveerd
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security niet geactiveerd
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security niet geactiveerd
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security niet geactiveerd
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital onduidelijk
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital niet geactiveerd
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital niet geactiveerd
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act onduidelijk
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act niet geactiveerd
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act niet geactiveerd
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions niet geactiveerd
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions niet geactiveerd → gedeeltelijk → niet geactiveerd
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions niet geactiveerd
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions niet geactiveerd → vervallen
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment niet geactiveerd
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment niet geactiveerd
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment niet geactiveerd
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment niet geactiveerd
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment niet geactiveerd
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment niet geactiveerd