57Seuils de bascule
0actuellement déclenchés
13actuellement partiels
0Alertes précoces« partiel » avant un déclenchement
5Retraitsévaluation atténuée par la suite
Seuils de bascule ayant évolué
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non déclenché → caduc
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific partiel → non déclenché
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East non déclenché → partiel → non déclenché
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East déclenché → partiel
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East déclenché → partiel
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability non déclenché → partiel
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non déclenché → partiel → non déclenché
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East non déclenché → partiel
Niveaux de situation par thème
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
Tous les seuils de bascule par thème
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness partiel
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness non déclenché
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness non déclenché
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness non déclenché
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific non déclenché
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific non déclenché
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific non déclenché
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific partiel → non déclenché
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry partiel
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry non déclenché
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry non déclenché
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate partiel
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate partiel
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate non déclenché
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate non déclenché
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate non déclenché
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability non déclenché → partiel
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability non déclenché
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability non déclenché
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability non déclenché
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East déclenché → partiel
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East non déclenché → partiel
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East déclenché → partiel
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East non déclenché
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East non déclenché → partiel → non déclenché
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence partiel
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence partiel
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence partiel
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence partiel
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence partiel
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence non déclenché
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence non déclenché
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence non déclenché
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence non déclenché
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence non déclenché
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence non déclenché
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence non déclenché
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security non déclenché
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security non déclenché
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security non déclenché
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security non déclenché
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital incertain
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital non déclenché
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital non déclenché
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act incertain
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act non déclenché
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act non déclenché
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non déclenché
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non déclenché → partiel → non déclenché
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non déclenché
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non déclenché → caduc
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non déclenché
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non déclenché
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non déclenché
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non déclenché
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non déclenché
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non déclenché