57Umbrales de cambio
0activados actualmente
13parciales actualmente
0Alertas tempranas«parcial» antes de una activación
5Retiradasvaloración atenuada después
Umbrales de cambio con movimiento
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions no activado → caducado
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parcial → no activado
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East no activado → parcial → no activado
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East activado → parcial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East activado → parcial
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability no activado → parcial
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions no activado → parcial → no activado
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East no activado → parcial
Niveles de situación por tema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
Todos los umbrales de cambio por tema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness parcial
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness no activado
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness no activado
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness no activado
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific no activado
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific no activado
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific no activado
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parcial → no activado
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry parcial
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry no activado
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry no activado
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate parcial
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate parcial
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate no activado
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate no activado
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate no activado
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability no activado → parcial
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability no activado
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability no activado
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability no activado
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East activado → parcial
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East no activado → parcial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East activado → parcial
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East no activado
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East no activado → parcial → no activado
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence parcial
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence parcial
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence parcial
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence parcial
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence parcial
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence no activado
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence no activado
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence no activado
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence no activado
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence no activado
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence no activado
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence no activado
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security no activado
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security no activado
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security no activado
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security no activado
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital poco claro
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital no activado
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital no activado
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act poco claro
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act no activado
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act no activado
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions no activado
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions no activado → parcial → no activado
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions no activado
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions no activado → caducado
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment no activado
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment no activado
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment no activado
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment no activado
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment no activado
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment no activado