57Tipping points
0currently triggered
13currently partial
0Early warnings“partial” before a trigger
5Withdrawalsrating later softened
Tipping points that moved
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions not triggered → lapsed
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific partial → not triggered
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East not triggered → partial → not triggered
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East triggered → partial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East triggered → partial
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability not triggered → partial
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions not triggered → partial → not triggered
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East not triggered → partial
Situation levels per topic
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
All tipping points by topic
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness partial
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness not triggered
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness not triggered
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness not triggered
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific not triggered
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific not triggered
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific not triggered
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific partial → not triggered
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry partial
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry not triggered
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry not triggered
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate partial
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate partial
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate not triggered
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate not triggered
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate not triggered
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability not triggered → partial
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability not triggered
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability not triggered
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability not triggered
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East triggered → partial
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East not triggered → partial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East triggered → partial
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East not triggered
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East not triggered → partial → not triggered
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence partial
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence partial
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence partial
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence partial
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence partial
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence not triggered
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence not triggered
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence not triggered
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence not triggered
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence not triggered
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence not triggered
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence not triggered
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security not triggered
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security not triggered
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security not triggered
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security not triggered
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital unclear
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital not triggered
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital not triggered
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act unclear
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act not triggered
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act not triggered
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions not triggered
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions not triggered → partial → not triggered
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions not triggered
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions not triggered → lapsed
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment not triggered
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment not triggered
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment not triggered
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment not triggered
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment not triggered
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment not triggered