57Praguri de basculare
0declanșate în prezent
13parțiale în prezent
0Avertizări timpurii„parțial” înaintea unei declanșări
5Retrageriîncadrare atenuată ulterior
Praguri de basculare care s-au mișcat
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nedeclanșat → expirat
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parțial → nedeclanșat
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East nedeclanșat → parțial → nedeclanșat
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East declanșat → parțial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East declanșat → parțial
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability nedeclanșat → parțial
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nedeclanșat → parțial → nedeclanșat
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East nedeclanșat → parțial
Nivelurile situației pe teme
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
Toate pragurile de basculare pe teme
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness parțial
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness nedeclanșat
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness nedeclanșat
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness nedeclanșat
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific nedeclanșat
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific nedeclanșat
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific nedeclanșat
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parțial → nedeclanșat
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry parțial
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry nedeclanșat
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry nedeclanșat
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate parțial
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate parțial
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate nedeclanșat
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate nedeclanșat
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate nedeclanșat
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability nedeclanșat → parțial
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability nedeclanșat
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability nedeclanșat
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability nedeclanșat
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East declanșat → parțial
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East nedeclanșat → parțial
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East declanșat → parțial
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East nedeclanșat
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East nedeclanșat → parțial → nedeclanșat
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence parțial
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence parțial
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence parțial
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence parțial
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence parțial
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence nedeclanșat
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence nedeclanșat
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence nedeclanșat
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence nedeclanșat
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence nedeclanșat
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence nedeclanșat
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence nedeclanșat
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security nedeclanșat
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security nedeclanșat
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security nedeclanșat
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security nedeclanșat
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital neclar
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital nedeclanșat
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital nedeclanșat
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act neclar
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act nedeclanșat
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act nedeclanșat
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nedeclanșat
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nedeclanșat → parțial → nedeclanșat
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nedeclanșat
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nedeclanșat → expirat
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nedeclanșat
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nedeclanșat
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nedeclanșat
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nedeclanșat
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nedeclanșat
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nedeclanșat