57Progi zwrotne
0obecnie uruchomione
13obecnie częściowe
0Wczesne ostrzeżenia„częściowy” przed uruchomieniem
5Wycofaniaklasyfikacja później złagodzona
Progi zwrotne, które się zmieniły
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nieuruchomiony → wygasły
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific częściowy → nieuruchomiony
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East nieuruchomiony → częściowy → nieuruchomiony
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East uruchomiony → częściowy
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East uruchomiony → częściowy
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability nieuruchomiony → częściowy
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nieuruchomiony → częściowy → nieuruchomiony
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East nieuruchomiony → częściowy
Poziomy sytuacji według tematów
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
Wszystkie progi zwrotne według tematów
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness częściowy
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness nieuruchomiony
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness nieuruchomiony
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness nieuruchomiony
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific nieuruchomiony
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific nieuruchomiony
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific nieuruchomiony
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific częściowy → nieuruchomiony
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry częściowy
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry nieuruchomiony
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry nieuruchomiony
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate częściowy
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate częściowy
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate nieuruchomiony
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate nieuruchomiony
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate nieuruchomiony
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability nieuruchomiony → częściowy
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability nieuruchomiony
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability nieuruchomiony
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability nieuruchomiony
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East uruchomiony → częściowy
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East nieuruchomiony → częściowy
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East uruchomiony → częściowy
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East nieuruchomiony
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East nieuruchomiony → częściowy → nieuruchomiony
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence częściowy
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence częściowy
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence częściowy
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence częściowy
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence częściowy
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence nieuruchomiony
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence nieuruchomiony
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence nieuruchomiony
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence nieuruchomiony
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence nieuruchomiony
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence nieuruchomiony
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence nieuruchomiony
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security nieuruchomiony
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security nieuruchomiony
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security nieuruchomiony
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security nieuruchomiony
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital niejasny
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital nieuruchomiony
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital nieuruchomiony
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act niejasny
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act nieuruchomiony
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act nieuruchomiony
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nieuruchomiony
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nieuruchomiony → częściowy → nieuruchomiony
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nieuruchomiony
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions nieuruchomiony → wygasły
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nieuruchomiony
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nieuruchomiony
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nieuruchomiony
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nieuruchomiony
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nieuruchomiony
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment nieuruchomiony