57Soglie critiche
0attualmente scattate
13attualmente parziali
0Preallarmi«parziale» prima dello scatto
5Ritirivalutazione poi attenuata
Soglie critiche che si sono mosse
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non scattata → decaduta
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parziale → non scattata
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East non scattata → parziale → non scattata
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East scattata → parziale
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East scattata → parziale
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability non scattata → parziale
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non scattata → parziale → non scattata
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East non scattata → parziale
Livelli di situazione per tema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
China & Indo-Pacific
Economy & industry
Energy & climate
Germany: party system & political stability
Middle East
Security & defence
Switzerland: politics & security
Technology & digital
The EU's capacity to act
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
Tutte le soglie critiche per tema
Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness
- Proven sustained human-to-human transmission of a pathogen with pandemic potentialBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness parziale
- Documented release of a pathogen of the highest risk class from a laboratory facilityBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness non scattata
- Another G7 state or China withdraws from the WHO or renounces the International Health RegulationsBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness non scattata
- WHO declares an outbreak a pandemicBiosecurity & pandemic preparedness non scattata
China & Indo-Pacific
- Blockade or quarantine of TaiwanChina & Indo-Pacific non scattata
- Direct military incident China–US with deathsChina & Indo-Pacific non scattata
- Formal abandonment of the one-China policy by Washington or TaipeiChina & Indo-Pacific non scattata
- Capital controls that substantially restrict renminbi foreign tradeChina & Indo-Pacific parziale → non scattata
Economy & industry
- A German carmaker announces the closure of a domestic plant or compulsory redundancies in productionEconomy & industry parziale
- The ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for a member stateEconomy & industry non scattata
- Eurostat reports negative euro-area GDP growth for two consecutive quartersEconomy & industry non scattata
Energy & climate
- A second G7 state withdraws from the Paris Agreement, or a G7 state withdraws from the UNFCCCEnergy & climate parziale
- Peer-reviewed evidence that a major element has begun to tip (e.g. AMOC weakening outside the model range)Energy & climate parziale
- An EU member state imposes gas rationing for industry or householdsEnergy & climate non scattata
- Global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, territorial) fall three years in a row for the first timeEnergy & climate non scattata
- Annual mean exceeds +2.0 °C above pre-industrialEnergy & climate non scattata
Germany: party system & political stability
- The AfD provides a state premier for the first time or joins a state governmentGermany: party system & political stability non scattata → parziale
- Collapse of the federal government / early electionsGermany: party system & political stability non scattata
- The Federal Constitutional Court is attacked in its composition or binding effectGermany: party system & political stability non scattata
- A party ban procedure is formally openedGermany: party system & political stability non scattata
Middle East
- Direct, sustained war between Iran and Israel for more than three months, with or without ground operationsMiddle East scattata → parziale
- Iranian military retaliation against a Ukrainian or European targetMiddle East non scattata → parziale
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz > 1 weekMiddle East scattata → parziale
- Iranian nuclear test or proven weapons statusMiddle East non scattata
- Overthrow or collapse of the government of a Gulf stateMiddle East non scattata → parziale → non scattata
Security & defence
- Adoption of joint EU defence funding in the form of grants > EUR 100bn, or cumulative disbursements of joint defence instruments exceed EUR 100bnSecurity & defence parziale
- A cyber attack causes a power outage of several days in a European countrySecurity & defence parziale
- Direct armed confrontation NATO–Russia with deaths or return of fire by a NATO stateSecurity & defence parziale
- A hybrid attack in an EU or NATO state causes deaths, or a government officially attributes such an attack to a foreign stateSecurity & defence parziale
- Collapse of a major ransomware ecosystem through coordinated law enforcementSecurity & defence parziale
- First NATO collective defence or Art. 4 process primarily because of a cyber attackSecurity & defence non scattata
- Formal ceasefire or conclusion of negotiationsSecurity & defence non scattata
- Nationwide protests in Russia with an economic cause, or an open split in the eliteSecurity & defence non scattata
- NATO collective defence (Art. 5) is invoked or an alliance member uses military force against the territory of anotherSecurity & defence non scattata
- Proven manipulation of safety instrumented systems (SIS) of an industrial plant causing injurySecurity & defence non scattata
- Russian general mobilisation or nationwide martial lawSecurity & defence non scattata
- Collapse of a front sector > 50 km deepSecurity & defence non scattata
Switzerland: politics & security
- Formal accession process to a defence allianceSwitzerland: politics & security non scattata
- Defence spending exceeds 1.5% of GDP in the budgetSwitzerland: politics & security non scattata
- A constitutional amendment on neutrality is adoptedSwitzerland: politics & security non scattata
- A popular vote overturns the Bilaterals IIISwitzerland: politics & security non scattata
Technology & digital
- First documented major damage (> USD 1bn or deaths) caused directly by an autonomous AI systemTechnology & digital incerta
- Binding international AI safety agreement among the major labs/statesTechnology & digital non scattata
- The EU suspends the AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models or postpones them by at least one yearTechnology & digital non scattata
The EU's capacity to act
- Three or more Schengen states simultaneously suspend free movement towards the same member state for more than three monthsThe EU's capacity to act incerta
- An Article 7 procedure leads to a suspension of voting rights for the first timeThe EU's capacity to act non scattata
- A member state formally initiates withdrawal from the EUThe EU's capacity to act non scattata
USA: executive, rule of law & institutions
- The executive openly and persistently disregards a Supreme Court rulingUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non scattata
- Mass removal/replacement of election officials in swing statesUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non scattata → parziale → non scattata
- Postponement or annulment of a federal electionUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non scattata
- Federal deployment of armed forces or federalised National Guard against domestic protests in at least two states, in at least one of them against the declared will of the state governmentUSA: executive, rule of law & institutions non scattata → decaduta
World economy, financial markets & AI investment
- Default of a systemically important financial institutionWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non scattata
- Downgrade of the US below AA- by two agenciesWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non scattata
- A hyperscaler cuts AI capex by > 30% year on yearWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non scattata
- Failed US Treasury auction or loss of control at the long endWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non scattata
- Global recession (two quarters of negative world growth) officially confirmedWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non scattata
- Default of a major AI-infrastructure financing vehicleWorld economy, financial markets & AI investment non scattata